🌾 SECTION 1: FARMER FOCUS – Mustard & Soybean
🔍 A. Crush Margin Analysis (Farmer's Realization from Seeds to Oil)
Crop | Avg. Mandi Price (₹/Quintal) | Avg. Oil Recovery (%) | Oil Price (₹/kg) | Crush Margin (₹/Quintal) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mustard | 5,600 | 38% | ₹130 | ₹(130×38) - 5600 ≈ ₹(4,940 - 5,600) = -660 (Loss) |
Soybean | 4,200 | 18% | ₹115 | ₹(115×18) - 4200 ≈ ₹(2,070 - 4,200) = -2,130 (Heavy Loss) |
📌 Insight:
🟥 Both Mustard & Soybean are currently running negative crush margins due to higher seed prices and stagnant oil rates.
🌍 B. Export Trends & Market Strategy
Commodity | Exports (Apr-Jun 2025) | Major Buyers | Export Trend | Advisory for Farmers |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mustard Oil | ⬆️ +12% YoY | Nepal, Bangladesh | Rising Demand | Focus on quality produce, avoid distress sale |
Soybean Meal | ⬇️ -18% YoY | Vietnam, Iran | Declining Demand | Store crop till prices improve post-rainfall season |
📦 C. Storage Advisory for Farmers
-
✅ Mustard: Can be safely stored in jute bags with low humidity. Store in dry ventilated godowns.
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✅ Soybean: High oil content → susceptible to rancidity & fungal growth. Use hermetic bags or metal bins. Avoid plastic in monsoon.
📢 Advisory: Do not sell in July–August if not in urgent need. Better realization expected around October–November (festival & export demand).
💹 SECTION 2: TRADER FOCUS – Price Fluctuation & Export Watch
📈 A. Price Volatility (Last 4 Weeks)
Crop | Min Price (₹/Quintal) | Max Price (₹/Quintal) | Current Price (₹/Quintal) | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mustard | 5,300 | 5,800 | 5,600 | 🔄 Stable |
Soybean | 3,950 | 4,300 | 4,200 | 🔽 Slight Decline |
🔎 Reasons:
-
Mustard: Stable due to stock limit regulations, lower imports.
-
Soybean: Price pressure from Brazilian harvest + weak export demand.
🌐 B. Export Analysis for Traders
Product | Global Demand Trend | India’s Export Advantage | Risk Factor |
---|---|---|---|
Mustard Oil | High (Organic Oil Demand) | Cold-pressed advantage, low competition | Limited scale |
Soybean Meal | Low (Global oversupply) | Competitive only at lower prices | Currency risk, shipping cost |
💡 Trade Insight:
-
Stockist traders can benefit from Mustard oil exports to niche markets.
-
Soybean crushing & meal export not viable currently — caution advised.
🧴 SECTION 3: CONSUMER FOCUS – Oil Price Sensitivity Check
🛒 Edible Oil Price Tracker (Retail)
Oil Type | Current MRP (₹/Litre) | 1-Month Change | Consumer Impact |
---|---|---|---|
Mustard Oil | ₹160 | ➖ No Change | Neutral |
Soybean Oil | ₹138 | 🔼 +₹5 | Moderate Burden |
Sunflower Oil | ₹155 | 🔽 -₹3 | Relief |
Palm Oil | ₹120 | ➖ Stable | Affordable Option |
🔍 Consumer Advisory:
-
🛒 Bulk buy Mustard Oil before festive price hike.
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🌿 Switch to Sunflower or Palm Oil for price-sensitive households.
📊 Summary Snapshot
Segment | Current Situation | Strategic Recommendation |
---|---|---|
Farmers | Negative margins, volatile prices | Hold stock, delay sales till festival/export season |
Traders | Mustard oil export profitable | Focus on mustard; avoid speculative soybean trades |
Consumers | Soybean oil getting costlier | Choose sunflower/palm oil for budget needs |
🔔 Quick Tips
✅ Monitor MSP Announcements
✅ Stay Alert on Import Duty Changes
✅ Use Storage Bags with Moisture Control
✅ Follow Harvest Track for Weekly Alerts
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