📊 Weekly Mandi Prices – North India (latest available)
| Crop | Mandi Price (₹/qtl) | Compared to MSP | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maize | 2,310 (≈₹23.1/kg) as of Aug 5, 2025 (commodityonline.com) | Below MSP (~₹2,400): ↓90 | Hold / Sell if buyers match MSP |
| Wheat | Data not currently available in public sources | — | Monitor mandi rates: sell when price ≥ 2,425 |
| Rice (Paddy) | Data not available | — | Monitor mandi rates: sell when price ≥ 2,369 |
💡 Market & Procurement Outlook
- Procurement volumes slipping: Government rice & wheat procurement has declined in recent years after peaking in 2021–22 (FACTLY).
- Stock surplus: India’s total rice + wheat stock (~764 LMT) very high vs buffer norms (~210 LMT) as of May 2025 (Agri Welfare) — downward price pressure risk.
- Punjab rent‑in MSP enforcement weak: Local traders paying ₹1,800‑2,000/qtl vs MSP ₹2,225 for maize; procurement agencies not enforcing government prices (The Times of India).
🧭 Strategy Recommendations (North India)
Maize
- Current mandi price (~2,310) falls below MSP (2,400).
- Hold stocks until mandi quotations reach at least MSP level.
- Alternatively, sell only if procurement agencies or assured traders pay MSP or higher.
Wheat and Paddy
- Track mandi weekly: once they approach or exceed MSPs (Wheat 2,425; Paddy 2,369), lean toward selling.
- Otherwise, hold, especially if stocks are abundant and procurement slow.
General Notes
- MSP enforcement in some states (e.g. Punjab) remains patchy; buyers often offer discounts citing moisture or quality.
- If selling via e‑choupal networks or government centers, match or exceed MSP to minimize distress.
- Given large buffer stocks, anticipate delayed price rises; avoid panic selling at discounts.
🏁 Summary Snapshot
- Maize → Hold (price ~2,310 vs MSP 2,400)
- Wheat → Watch mandi; sell when ≥2,425
- Rice → Watch mandi; sell when ≥2,369
🚨 Watch Points / Alerts
- Rapid rise in mandi prices toward MSP → Trigger Sell Signal
- News of expanded government procurement drives or buffer de-stocking → Could drive mandi prices up.
- Regional variations: consider state-level mandi data where available for better decisioning.
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